U.S. could lead world oil production by 2017, study says

THINKSTOCK

Oil production from shale wells will continue to increase and could reach 5 million barrels per day by 2017.?

Domestic shale oil production could shoot up to 5 million barrels per day by 2017, making the United States the top oil producing country in the world, according to a researcher at Harvard Kennedy School.

Leonardo Maugeri, a former oil industry executive from Italy, estimates there could be more than 100,000 working wells in North Dakota and Texas by 2030. There are about 10,000 now.

Nationwide, production of all oil could shoot up from 11.3 million to 16 million barrels per day by 2017.

That's much higher than the best scenario projected by the Energy Information Administration, which showed 10 million barrels per day between 2020 and 2040. The EIA reported production of all crude oil has already gone up from 5 million barrels per day in 2008 to 6.5 million barrels per day in 2012.

For some perspective on just how proficient domestic drilling has become, Maugeri points out that the U.S. completed 45,468 oil and gas wells and put 28,354 of them into production. The rest of the world drilled 3,921 wells.

The report also notes that drillers are punching 90 new wells a month into the Bakken Shale to maintain production of 770,000 barrels per day. Shale wells reach peak production shortly after being brought online and decline from there.

"No other country or area of the world has even a fraction of this drilling capacity and building up this power would require several years," Maugeri wrote in the policy brief. "The combination of vast geologic supply of shale oil and low population density in these areas allows for intense, sustained production unique to the United States."

So, what does this mean for the Middle East and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries?

Nicholas covers the energy and banking beats for the Dallas Business Journal. Subscribe the Energy Inc. newsletter

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